The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be “extraordinary,” driven by climate change. This article explores how these powerful storms—known as hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones—are influenced by global warming.
What Are Hurricanes?
Hurricanes are powerful storms that develop in warm tropical ocean waters. They are known as cyclones in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific, and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. These storms, collectively referred to as “tropical cyclones,” are characterized by high wind speeds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, causing widespread damage and flooding.
Major hurricanes are rated category three and above, meaning they reach at least 111mph (178km/h).
What Are the Categories of Hurricanes?
The infographic below shows the different categories broken down into wind speed, storm surge, and expected damage from each type.
How Are Hurricanes Formed?
Hurricanes begin as atmospheric disturbances, such as a tropical wave. Warm, moist air rises from the ocean surface, causing winds in the storm cloud to spin due to the Earth’s rotation. For a hurricane to sustain and intensify, sea surface temperatures need to be at least 27°C, with minimal variation in wind speed with altitude.
Increasing Intensity and Frequency of Hurricanes Observed
While the global frequency of tropical cyclones hasn’t increased significantly, a higher proportion of these storms are reaching category three or above, indicating more intense hurricanes. The IPCC reports “medium confidence” in increased average and peak rainfall rates associated with these storms. Rapid intensification, where wind speeds increase quickly, is becoming more common, posing greater dangers.
Climate Change’s Role on Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones
Rising sea surface temperatures provide more energy for storms, leading to higher wind speeds. The forecast of up to seven major Atlantic hurricanes in 2024 is linked to record high sea surface temperatures, driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Warmer air holds more moisture, resulting in more intense rainfall, as seen in Hurricane Harvey’s catastrophic flooding in 2017.
Future Projections on Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones
The IPCC predicts that while the number of tropical cyclones may not increase, their intensity and associated rainfall will. If global temperatures rise by 1.5°C, the proportion of category four and five storms could increase by around 10%. This rise could reach 20% if temperatures increase by 4°C.
Climate change is making tropical cyclones more intense and destructive, posing increasing risks to vulnerable regions. It’s crucial to enhance preparedness and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate these impacts.
